How can automotive suppliers forecast demand through chaos?

The Supplier Signal is the show where the people driving the automotive supply industry share what's really on their minds: straight analysis and a grounded market outlook from operators living it, not narrating from the sidelines. In this episode 2, host Todd Yaquinto sits down with Trey Pesci, Senior Forecast Analyst.

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Episode summary

In this episode of The Supplier Signal, host Todd Yaquinto talks with Trey Pesci, Senior Forecast Analyst, about what it really takes to forecast demand in today's automotive supply chain. Trey's path started in global ocean exports at a freight forwarder, moved through a US-focused 3PL working closely with automotive suppliers, and led him into automotive forecasting, where his logistics background gave him a front-row seat to how supply chain disruptions ripple straight into manufacturing operations. He shares why the best problem solvers in this industry are often the people who've been sitting next to you solving similar issues for years, and why tapping into that institutional knowledge matters more as the market keeps shifting.

Key takeaways

• Forecasting isn't a crystal ball. The job is understanding the business as a whole, reading market trends, and telling a story about where the industry is headed, not producing a single guaranteed number.

• Volatility is the new normal. Semiconductor shortages, supply shortages, tariffs, and swinging EV regulations have made the pace of change far faster than it was even eight years ago.

• Historical data is no longer king. Demand doesn't follow a steady growth curve anymore, so every data source carries a different weight.

• Collaboration separates signal from noise. Closer conversations with customers and sales teams help forecasters judge what's noise and what's actually going to happen.

• Forecast cadence has accelerated. Planning has moved from twice a year to quarterly and increasingly monthly, because a six-month-old forecast can be badly outdated.

• Misses rarely have one cause. Most come from a combination of data quality, bad assumptions, and changing business conditions, which is why regular validation against actuals matters.

From ocean exports to automotive forecasting: how Trey got into automotive

Todd: How did you end up in your role, and what drew you to the automotive industry specifically?

Trey Pesci: I graduated from Western Michigan University with a degree in supply chain management. Right out of college I worked at a freight forwarder in global exports, ocean exports to be specific: container ships and that sort of thing. That's where I really came to understand the importance of supply chain timing when you're sending goods overseas. I then moved to a 3PL, which was faster paced and focused on the US market, and I spent a lot of my time working with automotive suppliers. After a few years there, I moved into my role as an automotive forecaster. My logistics background helped me see that everything is interconnected, and that operational impacts in logistics flow straight into manufacturing operations. I enjoy automotive because it's fast paced and it draws on everything I've worked on: logistics, data, and operations. It definitely keeps us on our toes every day.

Why the smartest resource is the person next to you

Trey Pesci: The automotive industry has a ton of very knowledgeable professionals who have been solving the same issues and day-to-day hurdles you'll run into. The smartest people you can lean on are the ones who have been doing it next to you for years. That person might not even be in your department. Someone in a different department may look at the data, or the problem you're trying to solve, in a slightly different way, because everything each department does is interconnected at the end of the day.

Todd: So true. Tap into the knowledge that exists, especially before it moves on.

Trey Pesci: Absolutely. With the state of the automotive market, you also need to be able to evolve and stay flexible. Things change fast, so it's a good skill not to get set in your ways and to be ready to change your daily work, like going from the EV push of yesterday to where things are today.

What's the biggest misconception about demand forecasting?

Todd: In your role, what's a common misconception people have?

Trey Pesci: One of the biggest misconceptions in forecasting is that as an analyst, we're supposed to pull out a crystal ball and tell everybody exactly what's going to happen: just produce a number and say, "This is what we should expect to sell." In reality, it's much more about understanding the business as a whole, understanding the trends in the market, using information beyond the core data set, and telling a story about what the data is doing and where the industry, and our business, is headed.

Todd: So the crystal ball method probably isn't going to work.

Trey Pesci: I like to think I'm pretty good at my job. But a forecast is never a guarantee. It's a tool to help people prepare and make better decisions in a challenging market.

What are the biggest external pressures facing auto suppliers?

Todd: What are some of the biggest external pressures facing the supplier world today?

Trey Pesci: The ever-changing market. Volatility has become the norm in automotive. The pace of change is much faster than when I started, and I've only been doing this for eight years; some people have been at it their entire careers. Since I started, mostly post-COVID, we've run into semiconductor issues, supply shortages, tariffs, and all sorts of market shifts that make day-to-day work more difficult. We've had to move our forecasts from EV-heavy back to internal combustion engines, then back toward EVs, as regulations on electric vehicles have changed. It's an ongoing job to look at everything as a whole, account for where we want to be headed, and stay realistic about where we can actually get based on market trends.

How do you forecast when the data is thin or contradictory?

Todd: It's not an exact science. How do you handle a forecast when the data is thin or contradictory?

Trey Pesci: It's tough, because we filter through a lot of data every day: data from the customer, our historical data, industry trends. You can't look at history anymore and say, "This is what we did last year, so this is what we'll do this year." It's not a steady growth curve anymore. So we look at the data as a whole, then talk with our customers and our sales team. We have to be more collaborative than ever to understand the market trend, what we should expect to see, and what we realistically think will happen. A customer can be very bullish on EVs, and a month or even a week later, things change. Trucks are a big moneymaker for the auto industry, so as soon as that EV lever turns off, trucks and big vehicles go right back up, where before we were taking a little out of that forecast to account for the EV push. An automotive forecast is a living document. It's never just a snapshot in time; it keeps improving as new data becomes available.

How has automotive demand forecasting changed over the last decade?

Todd: Over your eight-plus years, how has the way you forecast demand changed?

Trey Pesci: We've changed the way we forecast because of the market. You can't rely on historical data alone anymore, and every piece of data you work with carries a different weight. Historical data used to be king. Now there's a much greater focus on talking with your customer and your sales team to understand what's noise and what's actually going to happen. Sometimes we'll receive a forecast saying a customer will build at a certain rate, when we know they can't, and the real number will be lower because of semiconductor shortages, production scheduling changes, or tariffs changing where things get produced. Evolving priorities at the customer, at the OEM, change our priorities and how we look at the data.

Our cadence has changed too. We used to do business planning twice a year. We moved to a quarterly forecast, and we're leaning even more into monthly, continually through the year, because things change so quickly. We get new data every month, and our job is to pick it apart and ask, "Is this a big enough change to move the needle and adjust our business planning?" If you wait six months, that snapshot can be so outdated that you need to look at the data more regularly and update the financial forecast, so the organization is better equipped to make decisions quickly.

Why do forecasts miss: bad data, bad assumptions, or changing conditions?

Todd: When a forecast doesn't pan out, what do you usually find? Is it bad data in, bad assumptions, or something else?

Trey Pesci: It's hard to point to one specific factor. In my experience, it's normally a combination of data quality, bad assumptions, and changing business conditions. Even with great data, a forecast goes out of date fairly quickly. So staying on top of it, validating more regularly, and comparing the trends against the actuals we're shipping has been one of the big things. It's been a tough time to be a forecast analyst in automotive. You're constantly being questioned and constantly looking at new information.

What's the outlook for the automotive industry?

Trey Pesci: At the end of the day, we've been humming along for a while now. With the changes around EVs, I feel like we've moved away from uncertainty about where we're headed and back to something more constant: large vehicles, large SUVs, and trucks. A lot of what I work on is tied to the Detroit Three, especially engines for larger trucks, and I see that as a constant I can lean on. Still, you wonder how long things can continue before there's another big shakeup. Tariffs were one of those, an all-hands-on-deck moment to figure out how to change the way we produce to mitigate some of those cost pressures. But we've got a pretty decent outlook on the automotive industry. There's always going to be a need for vehicles. With the increased cost of vehicles, we might see a small downtick in future production because some people can't afford larger, more expensive vehicles. You just have to focus day to day on the visibility in front of you, turn uncertain information into actionable insights, and go from there.

Todd: There are always going to be bumps in the road. It's how we address them, and the suppliers that take that approach are going to have a leg up on the ones that don't.

Frequently asked questions

Q: What is the biggest misconception about demand forecasting?

A: That a forecast is a crystal ball. A good forecast reflects an understanding of the business as a whole and the trends in the market, and it tells a story about where demand is likely headed. It's a tool for better decisions, not a guarantee.

Q: How often should automotive suppliers update their demand forecasts?

A: More often than they used to. Many teams have moved from planning twice a year to quarterly forecasts, and increasingly to monthly reviews, because a forecast that is six months old can be badly outdated in today's market.

Q: Why is historical data less reliable for automotive forecasting?

A: Automotive demand no longer follows a steady growth curve. Semiconductor shortages, tariffs, and shifting EV regulations mean last year's results are a weak guide to next year, so historical data now carries less weight next to customer and sales input.

Q: How do tariffs and EV regulations affect automotive demand forecasting?

A: They force frequent resets. Forecasts have swung from EV-heavy back toward internal combustion engines and back again as regulations changed, and tariffs can shift where vehicles and parts are produced, changing the build rates suppliers should expect.

Q: Why do automotive demand forecasts miss?

A: Rarely for a single reason. Most misses come from a combination of data quality, bad assumptions, and changing business conditions. Validating forecasts regularly against actual shipments helps catch problems early.

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