The Supplier Signal is the show where the people driving the automotive supply industry share what's really on their minds: straight analysis and a grounded market outlook from operators living it, not narrating from the sidelines. In this first episode, host Todd sits down with Joe McCarthy, Senior Vice President of Program Management at Campfire Interactive and co-founder of Cover 4 PM.
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Joe McCarthy has spent nearly his entire career in automotive, moving through sales, marketing, program management, IT, and corporate finance before co-founding Cover 4 PM in 2018 and joining Campfire when it was acquired in early 2026. In this conversation he unpacks the operational drag created by manual spreadsheets and siloed data, the split in how suppliers are approaching AI, why the EV push stalled, how the pullback lands on suppliers with capital already committed, and what a converged autonomous future means for how vehicles are designed and built. His throughline: the suppliers that win will be the ones prepared to pivot quickly.
Manual tools are the hidden tax. Spreadsheets offer control and flexibility but cost connectivity, collaboration, and a single source of truth. The prize is freeing teams to focus on problem-solving and innovation.
AI adoption is split. Some suppliers are eager and asking for features; others are guarded about data ownership and competitive risk. Both need to build toward operational maturity.
The EV pullback traces to infrastructure. Missing U.S. charging infrastructure was the elephant in the room. Expect hybrids to serve as the bridge to higher electrification.
Full autonomy is years out. The hard problem is mixing human and autonomous drivers. Dense cities will adopt first, and timelines could run anywhere from five to twenty-five years.
Autonomy reshapes the product. Structural components standardize, supplier competition shifts toward interior experience and infotainment, and OEMs may consolidate the supply chain further.
Agility is the differentiator. The winners assess their readiness honestly, run competitive analysis, and can change direction at a moment's notice.
Todd: I want to understand how you ended up where you are today, and specifically within the automotive industry.
Joe McCarthy: Most recently I was co-founder of Cover 4 PM, which we started in 2018 and which Campfire acquired in January of this year. I became SVP of Program Management at Campfire about six months ago. But I've been in automotive for the vast majority of my career, starting as a sales coordinator for a laser welding company called Noble International back in 2005 and 2006. Since then I've taken roles across sales, marketing, program management, IT, and even some corporate finance, moving around different suppliers and through different parts of the industry, before ultimately starting the company in 2018. It's really a combination of those skill sets: IT and program management, sales and marketing.
Todd: What's a skill you developed that you didn't quite expect in the PM space?
Joe McCarthy: It'll sound less technical than you'd think, but it's listening. It's understanding, from an individual or a group's point of view, the challenges they're facing, and anticipating the ones they may sense but can't quite articulate. You draw that out: "I see how you're doing your work today. Have you thought about X? Have you thought about Y?" That leads to a more robust conversation, and ultimately to a better solution or set of solutions.
Joe McCarthy: A lot of it comes down to how manual the work still is. I'm a self-proclaimed spreadsheet geek, so I say this with love: there's real comfort in having control over a spreadsheet or a workbook. But that's the trade-off. You get comfort and flexibility, and you lose connectivity, collaboration, and a single source of truth for the information you're managing. We don't have a shortage of tools or ways of doing the work. The challenge is fine-tuning it so we can become efficient enough to get to the meat and potatoes: solving problems, collaborating on new ideas, pushing things forward, and innovating. That's what should take up most of our time, and honestly what most people find interesting. Finding the right balance between control and efficiency is a challenge I face personally, and one I hear from almost everyone I talk to.
Joe McCarthy: Like a lot of industries, AI is a big one now that it's becoming part of everyone's day-to-day. OEMs, our customers' customers, will keep expecting efficiency gains, and not just on the shop floor. It's in the office too, for the people in program management, quotation, and every step from opportunity through launch and running the product. Then there's what I'd call a three-headed monster: AI, EVs, and autonomous driving. Autonomous vehicles have been discussed for a long time, but now you're actually seeing them on the road. As that grows, and as we possibly repeat the EV pattern of moving forward and taking a couple of steps back, it creates opportunity for innovation and change, which is always hard to manage but also gives us things we need to mitigate.
Todd: On AI specifically, do you see hesitancy in the supplier space? Excitement at first and then uncertainty about how to use it?
Joe McCarthy: It's across the board. Some people are excited to embrace it. They're asking a lot of questions: what features are you adding, when can we take a look? Others are more guarded: "This is all my data. Is it going to be processed with everyone else's data so some other company gains a competitive advantage?" As with any new technology, you have people who want to embrace it early and see what works, and people who hold back and want to be more careful. Either way, everyone has to move through a certain maturity process to get to the real value, which is problem-solving and focusing on the customer.
Todd: The industry went all in on electrification a few years ago, and now we're seeing a pullback. What trends are you seeing, and did any of it surprise you?
Joe McCarthy: The aspect I always felt would come home to roost was the lack of charging infrastructure, at least in the United States. Everyone was saying electrification is great and we want to push toward it, and a lot of the advantages are real. But there's a support system that has to be in place. Think about the infrastructure for combustion engines: there's a gas station on every corner. That either got overlooked, or we assumed we'd figure it out along the way, and at some point there was a realization that the infrastructure wasn't there. That's not the only reason, but it was a big hesitation for the public, especially in less densely populated areas where charging is harder to find and still takes a long time. What surprised me was how sharp the pullback was, given how gung-ho the OEM side had been. The downstream effect on suppliers is more hesitancy to jump all in on the next thing, whether that's AI on the shop floor or autonomous vehicles. Suppliers will be more diligent about throwing capital at something and then potentially being left holding the bag, negotiating for years to get resolution with the OEMs on commitments that were made.
Todd: OEMs can pivot to hybrids with a press release, but suppliers already have capital invested in multi-year programs with promised volume. How does that actually land on the suppliers you talk to?
Joe McCarthy: I've been to a lot of OEM events, through MEMA and other organizations, and everyone talks about a hand-in-hand relationship between suppliers and automakers. In certain areas it has improved, and I hope that continues. This is a "put your money where your mouth is" moment: "Yes, we pulled back on EVs, but hybrids help us ease in instead of going straight to full electrification." That's roughly what I'd anticipated, that hybrids would get more popular first and then transition to EVs. For that to work, OEMs and suppliers have to be as transparent as possible, build stronger relationships, and set realistic growth expectations, so suppliers don't feel like the rug got pulled out from under them and OEMs don't over-commit to the public. This is still very fresh and burned into a lot of minds up and down the supply chain. If that relationship keeps building, the transition from full ICE to more hybrids and eventually higher electrification will be smoother.
Todd: You mentioned Waymo expanding in some cities faster than others. Cutting through the hype, where do you think we really are on AV adoption?
Joe McCarthy: It's going to be a while, and it's largely an infrastructure situation. When you mix autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles, it causes problems. The ultimate goal is that if every vehicle is autonomous, they can all network and work together, which reduces crashes and is more efficient. You could even see speed limits go away because the cars are working in concert. But for now the biggest difficulty is mixing human drivers, who are prone to error, with autonomous systems designed to work best alongside other autonomous vehicles. That will create unintended consequences. Adoption will spread out, with densely populated cities as the most obvious early targets, similar to EVs. Timeframe is even harder to call: it could be five, ten, or twenty-five years, and there may be a point where autonomy is standard in cities like New York, Boston, LA, Detroit, and Miami but not required elsewhere. I'll say one thing, and it's probably a controversial opinion: once autonomous vehicles reduce crashes and fatalities to a certain point, driving yourself could even be made illegal, because people will look at near-zero fatalities and decide it isn't worth allowing. I'm not saying I'm in favor of that, but I could see it happening, with dedicated places like a track where you can still drive yourself. There will also be a lot of two-steps-forward, one-step-back on the regulations that have to be put in place, and legislating those takes a long time.
Todd: If that future arrives, there have to be changes in how vehicles are built. Walk me through that for the supplier world.
Joe McCarthy: When you're not driving, the focus shifts to infotainment and the interior, and maybe the color or the look and feel. The structural components of vehicles will become more and more standardized over time. That presents a challenge for suppliers, because variety may go down: potentially fewer models, less variation, which is more efficient to build. Automakers might then consolidate the supply chain further because they're making the same thing millions of times instead of tens or hundreds of thousands of times a year. Those are the downstream consequences of people focusing more on the inside of the vehicle, the infotainment, the upholstery, the feel. Right now the priority is making sure the safety features are in place. As autonomy gets more accepted, that gets worked out, and the differentiation moves to the interior and what you want to do inside the vehicle, whether that's watching TV, reading a book, or listening to podcasts. You'll see a wider variety there than on the structural components.
Todd: Who wins, and who has to reinvent themselves in a world like that?
Joe McCarthy: The companies that are prepared for that kind of change and can make decisions quickly enough to ride the wave. It could go in so many directions, so being adaptable and agile, with the ability to pivot as quickly as possible, is probably the most important philosophy a company can have, on both the OEM and supplier side. It's not just about thriving; in some cases it's about survival. Companies are made up of people, and the ones that prepare for these scenarios, gain insight quickly, and can analyze road A versus road B will be the winners long term. Suppliers reinvent themselves all the time. It takes capital in some cases, which isn't always easy, but with the right planning and the foresight to invest based on where the trends point, and with real collaboration across the supply chain, the prepared companies will execute well and keep thriving.
Todd: Final question. If you ran a supplier tomorrow, what's the first thing you'd change to get ready for that converged autonomous future?
Joe McCarthy: I'd be asking a lot of questions first, to identify our readiness level. How committed are we to a particular area of the business, whether that's transmission, body-in-white structural, or chassis? If we had to change at a moment's notice, what's our ability to do that, and what roadblocks are staring us in the face? Then I'd run market intelligence and competitive analysis: if we're not as ready as we'd like, are we at least the most ready of the players in our space? It would be a lot of quick analysis on where we are, what our plans are, and, if we're not ready, what we can do to put ourselves in a position to win as these trends keep evolving.
Q: Why did automakers pull back on EVs?
A: A major factor was missing charging infrastructure in the United States. Unlike gas stations, chargers are sparse outside dense areas and slower to use, which dampened public demand. Many automakers are now leaning on hybrids as a bridge to higher electrification.
Q: When will autonomous vehicles be widely adopted?
A: Widespread adoption is likely years away, with estimates ranging from five to twenty-five years. The core challenge is safely mixing human and autonomous drivers. Densely populated cities are expected to adopt first, with broader rollout following.
Q: What are the biggest operational challenges for auto suppliers?
A: Manual, spreadsheet-driven processes and siloed data are the main drag. They offer control and flexibility but sacrifice connectivity, collaboration, and a single source of truth, which limits visibility and forecasting accuracy.
Q: How is AI affecting automotive suppliers?
A: Adoption is split. Some suppliers are eager for new AI capabilities, while others are guarded about data ownership and competitive risk. OEMs will keep expecting efficiency gains in the office as well as on the shop floor.
Q: How will autonomous vehicles change vehicle design and the supply chain?
A: As driving attention shifts to the interior, structural components are expected to standardize while competition moves toward infotainment and interior experience. Fewer models and less variation could lead OEMs to consolidate their supply chains further.
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